The global economy has now entered its sixth year of stagnation, and the growth outlook for 2017 shows a continuation of this trend. A projected stabilization in energy and commodity prices may provide a small tailwind for resource rich economies in 2017, but the medium-term trend continues to be dominated byweaker growth in key inputs, notably investment and labor supply. Modest positive signals emerge from the base scenario showing some strengthening in qualitative growth factors, such as more advanced technology, improved labor force skills, and greater productivity. But those potentially favorable factors are under pressure from ongoing political, policy, and economic uncertainties around the world. This risks further inertia caused by a wait-and-see attitude among corporates and governments. Businesses have to prepare for more disruptions from geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, and rapid changes in technology, but they also need to stay focused on leveraging the qualitative sources of growth with investment in technology and business productivity even—or especially—in times of stagnation.
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